# The probability of bankruptcy in forex trading the culprit that causes trading bankruptcy is it!

Speculative ForexRapidRebate, to some extent, Forex Rapid Rebate a game of rebateforex No trader can be 100% sure of the future direction of prices Traders are based on fundamentals, technical analysis, or various other means to determ cashback forexe the future movement of the market, rebateforexfee then, according to the reliability of their expectations, establish positions and take risks Mature traders must establish a set of their own trading system, which should include trading It is worth noting that a traders research is not about a single trade, but about all trades over a long period of time. In the futures and foreign exchange markets, many traders have gone bankrupt or are on the verge of rebateforexbroker Here is where the probability of bankruptcy comes into play So what is the probability of bankruptcy? Simply put, the probability of bankruptcy in futures speculation refers to the probability of losing most of the principal after several trades under the guidance of a more mature and fixed trading system, making it impossible to carry out subsequent trades. This article attempts to explain this problem in simple terms and in a simplified model where heavy trading is the root cause of bankruptcy. And since this is a positive return trading system, is it true that the larger each trade is made, the more money it makes? We can turn this problem into a probability game: toss a coin of uniform quality, up and down with equal probability, and guess which side is facing up to get the reward of 1.05 times the principal amount of the bet. If the strategy used is to press all the capital to play and only play once, then it is very simple, the probability of bankruptcy is 0.5; if you play and only play twice, then the probability of bankruptcy is 0.75; if you play and only play three times, the probability of bankruptcy is 0.875 and so on, it is not difficult to find, if each time the capital all bet on, the more times to play, no matter how many times the profit once, it is difficult to escape the fate of all lost, and finally bankruptcy The probability of going bankrupt is close to 1. This leads to the qualitative conclusion: for futures speculation, no matter how accurate your judgment predictions are, as long as you are often full, heavy positions, then there is always a transaction that will make you go bankrupt, will be waiting for you at the end of your trading career greedy for short-term windfall profits and often heavy traders, it is difficult to end well, they are the meteor of the futures world, shining but short-lived famous American speculator Jesse Livingmore, the Therefore, traders who want to speculate in futures for a long time should consider not only how to make profits, but also how to make profits steadily for a long time, and whether they pay excessive psychological costs in the process of making profits Light trading is good for mental health The purpose of trading is not just for money If you risk bankruptcy for money If you risk bankruptcy or even suicide for the sake of money, you should consider whether it is worthwhile to do so if you always bear a huge financial risk, you must bear a huge psychological pressure for a long time in the long run, will certainly induce a variety of psychological disorders to varying degrees, such as depression or mania, etc. Even if you finally wash your hands of gold, full of money, but live an unhappy life, what is the use of money? Whats more, the probable result of this type of transaction is bankruptcy or the above example, if each time only take out 10,000 yuan to bet, then 10 times in a row wrong before bankruptcy, the probability of bankruptcy is less than 0.001 this number is small enough to let people sleep peacefully even so, it is not impossible to lose 10 times in a row, losing 100,000 yuan only, because each guess right can profit 500 yuan, in a row wrong 10 times before the occurrence, may have won back a number of 100,000 yuan and in the real world, mature trading system each transaction only bear the risk of 0.5%-1% of the total capital, can reduce the probability of bankruptcy to close to 0 The above example is only a simplified model, but it is not difficult to conclude: first to establish a positive rate of return on the trading system, and then run a light position do not hold Short-term riches, get rich mentality to do futures and foreign exchange, that is like a boat bumping in the sea of waves, fate is not under their control, and ultimately difficult to escape a disaster only a calm mind, diversify risk, control each transaction position within a reasonable range, in order to be free to boat in the picturesque peach blossom source